system vs method

[presto]

Systems vs methods is a much debated topic in the gambling world, each with there own pro's and con's. Some bettors prefer systems others method's - there is of course no definative answer to which is 'better', however personal preferance may play a part in deciding what is the best approach for each individual. I personally run many different banks of both method's and system's.

SYSTEMS - Are a set of rules that each selection must comply to, to be a bet.
An example of this could be:
'back Manchester UTD, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal when playing at home in the league'.
- Now i am not saying that this is a profitable system, mearly using it as an example, but it does show how 'restrictive' a system selection is, as the example system just focuses on just thoes 4 teams and only when they are playing at home and also when playing in the league. Of course it does take out the 'thinking process' of a method bet, which may be preferable depending on your way of thinking.

However it's not that easy to just come up with a system. With a system research is the key. One form of research is to look at past data and find trends. Keeping with the example system - looking back at past seasons results it is clear to see that thoes 4 teams do well and win a high proportion of there home games, this trend is also pretty reliable happening season after season - so in building a system we can probably rely on this trend to continue.

The next step is to see if this system is profitable as it is no use betting on a long term unprofitable system. To do this you would list all the past selections that would have qualified for the system, you can use however many years of data as you want, however the more data you you use the better as it builds a bigger picture. (A spreasheet comes in really handy here) then you will need to imput to your list of selections the odd's and result of the selection (if it won or lost). Once this is done a staking plan should be implemented, at this point a simple 1 unit (£ / $ / point) 'level stake' plan should be used. I always use 'level stakes' when working out a system as it is simply the best indicator of how sucsesfull a potential system is at this early point of system development. Once this is done you will have the results - SR, ROI, profit etc..... You will then know how sucsesfull the system 'would have been' - if it seems a profitable system then you can explore different staking methods (have a look at the 'staking plan' page for potential systems). If it dosn't look profitable then back to square one, I would strongly urge against making up risky staking plans to turn negative results into a profitable system, as you will be playing a dangerous game. Of course you can make slight tweaks to your system at this time - just make sure you have a reason for it.

So there you have it, a 'potential' system. - a word of warning though, 'just because a system may have been previously profitable, dosn't mean it will be profitable in the future'. However it can be used as a good 'guide' to future results.

If you use a system, you have to use it to the letter, it's no use doing all that research only to pick and chose what selections to bet on. There is also software available that can do much of the statistical research for you, which makes it a hell of a lot easier and quicker.

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METHODS - Are much more flexible than a system as they have no rules and rely on the individuals oppinion. However you decide to pick your selections is personal preferance but it always should be noted that there should be a reason for the selection. Betting on anything and everything without research is the quick way to the poor house. Try and bet on things that you know something about, for example if you are a follower of a lower division club - then why not try and specialise in that particular league. But try not to place bets on things you know nothing about, just because there is a Spanish league game on the TV on a Saturday night dosn't mean you should bet on it.

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If you decide to use a method or a system, a staking plan should still be used.

[vexusettofe]

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