SUPERBOWL XXLII - New England Patriots vs New York Giants

[presto]

SUPERBOWL XXLII
 New England Patriots vs New York Giants

It's the big one in Arizona this Sunday as the 'perfect' 16-0 (18-0) New England patriots go helmet to helmet with the 'wildcard' New York Giants 10-6 (13-6).
Can the patriots add the superbowl trophy and a very 'bling' ring to there so far perfect season? Or will the underdog's of New York steal some of that glory?
To answer thoes questions we will have to wait and see, however we can always speculate (not to mention the betting).

STATS


TEAM OFFENSE      PER GAME AVERAGE

Total Yards   
NYG   331.4
NE 411.3 *

Yards Passing   
NYG   197.1
NE   295.7 *

Yards Rushing   
NYG   134.3 *
NE   115.6

TEAM DEFENSE      PER GAME AVERAGE

Yards Allowed   
NYG   305.0
NE   288.3 *

Pass Yds Allowed   
NYG 207.3
NE 190.1 *

Rush Yds Allowed   
NYG   97.7*
NE   98.3

Gameday Matchup
   W   L      PF   PA   DIV   CON
NYG   10   6      23.3   22   3-3-0   7-5-0
NE   16   0      36.8   17   6-0-0   12-0-0

H2H Matchups (Since 2001)
New England leads 2-0
Dec 29, 2007   NE 38, @NYG 35
Oct 12, 2003   @NE 17, NYG 6

[presto]

So it's pretty odvious what the stats say.
NE better offence + defence.
NE better record.
NE score more and concede less.

So there you go, theres your pick - the patriots, infact no need even to stay up late to watch the game as it's a forgone conclusion. Or is it? you don't think i would leave it there would you? NO i didn't think you would. After all we only need to point out the week 17 game:
Dec 29, 2007   NE 38, @ NYG 35
ok so the pats won, but it was hardly a convincing win, with the giants pushing them hard all game and dare i say may even have won the game. In sport theres never a certainty and 'any given Sunday' anything can happen. Besides theres always a myriad of other bets to keep you interested for the full game and as this is a special occasion i will do my best to try and offer a wide range of possible picks.

[presto]

So down to the betting, there are 3 main ways in which i make picks:
METHOD - this is personal oppinion. staking reccomended from a 100 point bank.
SYSTEM - based on various factors, unafected by oppinion.
VALUE - based on computer analysis of data (and the PSP staking plan) to provide the selection that represents the most value, unafected by oppinion.
i personally use BETFAIR as my main bookie (exchange) - they consistently offer the best odd's and i cannot reccomend them highly enough (pleas sign up via the site to help us cover costs and keep the site free http://www.bigfootybets.com/bookmakers.html ).

To win the game:
method - New England patriots @ 1.23
system - New England patriots @ 1.23 (ranked A bet)
value - New York @ 5.3

I personally predict a NE victory, so does the system, the method however sees some value in New York - however it's a close call.
if you elect to bet the value then i would reccomend you to wait untill closer to kick off, as i feel that the odd's may drift higher, on the other hand if betting on NE then bet now as i predict the odd's may shorten.

handicap betting:

(value bets)
new england -18.5 vs new york + 18.5 @ 1.37
new england -12.5 vs new york + 12.5 @ 2.04
new england -6.5 vs new york + 6.5 @ 2.98

The computer picks New York to hold the value in all 3 handicap scenarios, the biggest value lies in New York + 12.5 @ 2.04. New York +18.5 @ 1.37 also hold's some decent value. New York + 6.5 @ 2.98  also dosn't look a bad bet either according to the analysis.

method betting - i also agree with the computer 'value' analysis, NY +12.5 @ 2.04 looks a very decent bet at odd's above evens, NY +18.5 @ 1.37 looks a cracking bet, a near certainty in my oppinion. NY + 6.5 looks a lot closer prospect IMO i can see the value in the odd's but wouldn't want to risk big money on it. I would bet around:

new england -18.5 vs new york + 18.5 @ 1.37 5 points
new england -12.5 vs new york + 12.5 @ 2.04 3 points
new england -6.5 vs new york + 6.5 @ 2.98 1/2 point

points total over / under

value bets

(53.5 points) over @1.89 / under @ 1.97
(43.5 points) over @ 1.31 / under @ 3.6

The computer has chosen unders in both scenarios, however there is little value to be had in either, under 53.5 @ 1.97 may be worth a small play according to the staking plan, but not enough to reccomend. under 43.5 the odd's look to be set about right according to the computer, so no bet here.

method bets
Again i agree with the computer here and cannot really see a decent bet in this market. Though a small dabble on under 53.5 could be worth it.
(53.5 points) over @1.89 / under @ 1.97 1/2 point.

[presto]

half time / full time

an interesting market this where you predict the outcome of the first half and the final outcome.

new england / new england @ 1.53
new england / new york @ 23
new england / tie @ 44

tie / new england @ 22
tie / tie @ 80
tie / new york @ 36

new york / tie @ 60
new york / new england @ 8.6
new york / new york @ 12.5

method bet
i like the look of the new england / new england @ 1.53

also by 'dutching' NE/NE and tie/NE with a (£93.5 on NE/NE and £6.5 tie/NE) ratio, you will have a return of 43% (1.43) if eiher selection comes in, this is a safer option of covering the first half tie.

MVP

tom brady @ 1.74
eli manning @ 8.6

randy moss @ 14.5
laurence marony @ 16.5
wes welker @ 23
plaxico burress @ 22

method bet - brady looks a good bet at 1.74 to get the MVP and worth a 3 point bet.

[presto]

NEW YORK GIANTS WIN 17-14
not a fantastic game, but a profitable one, the value bets were on fire with all 6 bets winning. the computer picks put me to shame i am afraid to say. Though i suppose i can have consolation in the fact that i made the system.

VALUE BETS

to win game
new england vs New York @ 5.3

handicap betting
new england -18.5 vs new york + 18.5 @ 1.37
new england -12.5 vs new york + 12.5 @ 2.04
new england -6.5 vs new york + 6.5 @ 2.98

points total over / under
(53.5 points) over @1.89 / under @ 1.97
(43.5 points) over @ 1.31 / under @ 3.6

remember to check back next season for more of the value bets.